Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2416
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 2416 · LAS → SFO
departs 7:51 PM PT · arrives 9:29 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 33%
Thu 11/5 41%
Fri 11/6 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
83%
chance · ±5 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
83%
Leave 15+ late
69%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
83%
Yes 83%
No 17%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 57% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
69%
Yes 69%
No 31%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
17%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
33%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 54% of the time recently
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.