Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2416
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2416 · MCO → LAS
departs 5:11 PM ET · arrives 6:53 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
63%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
63%
Leave 15+ late
62%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
8%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 1.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.36 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.