Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2423
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 2423 · LAS → SMF
departs 9:39 PM PT · arrives 11:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±7 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.21 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.