Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2424
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2424 · SNA → LAS
departs 4:16 PM PT · arrives 5:32 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
61%
chance · ±5 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
61%
Leave 15+ late
67%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
67%
Yes 67%
No 33%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.34 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.