Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2448
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 2448 · LAS → SMF
departs 4:49 PM PT · arrives 6:27 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±8 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.