Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2453
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 2453 · LAS → TUS
departs 6:16 PM PT · arrives 8:44 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 36%
Fri 11/6 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
63%
chance · ±2 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
63%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at TUS that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
TUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.14 in
TUS (destination)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.64 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.