Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2453
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2453 · OAK → LAS
departs 4:11 PM PT · arrives 5:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±8 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.