Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 2454 · LAS → BZN
departs 10:36 PM PT · arrives 1:38 AM MT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±1 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.1d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at BZN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BZN?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BZN that day
↓
BZN usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.21 in
BZN (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.