Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2459
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2459 · DAL → SAT
departs 6:59 PM CT · arrives 8:16 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 49%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 30%
Tue 11/3 37%
Wed 11/4 48%
Thu 11/5 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.