Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 245
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 245 · RSW → MCO
departs 6:58 PM ET · arrives 7:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 14%
Wed 11/4 17%
Thu 11/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±17 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, 1.5 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at RSW that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
RSW usually runs smoothly
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RSW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.52 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.54 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.