Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 246
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 246 · MDW → LAX
departs 10:31 PM CT · arrives 12:50 AM PT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±5 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 62% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 6.33333 mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.