Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2471
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 2471 · LAX → PHX
departs 5:56 PM PT · arrives 8:26 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
83%
chance · ±7 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
83%
Leave 15+ late
66%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
83%
Yes 83%
No 17%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 57% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
17%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
0.3 in of rain forecast at LAX that day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.32 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 1.64 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.