Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2485
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2485 · LAX → LAS
departs 9:38 PM PT · arrives 10:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 43%
Thu 11/5 53%
Fri 11/6 61%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed – in 24h
–
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed – in 24h
–
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
0.3 in of rain forecast at LAX that day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.26 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.