Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2495
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2495 · LAX → OAK
departs 4:46 PM PT · arrives 6:12 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 38%
Thu 11/5 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±5 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
63%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 59% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from LAX are often late
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.29 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.