Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 250
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 250 · ATL → PHX
departs 8:55 PM ET · arrives 11:01 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 32%
Wed 11/4 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed – in 24h
–
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 1.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.