Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2609
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2609 · MCI → AUS
departs 6:20 PM CT · arrives 8:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 26%
Wed 11/4 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from MCI are often late
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.