Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2631
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 2631 · MCO → ISP
departs 9:17 PM ET · arrives 12:06 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at ISP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ISP?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ISP
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.46 in
ISP (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.