Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 264
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 264 · MCO → SDF
departs 10:06 PM ET · arrives 12:19 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±2 pts
−15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.46 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.