Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2653
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2653 · DEN → SNA
departs 8:25 PM MT · arrives 9:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31 35%
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 28%
Wed 11/4 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±7 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.