Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2689
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2689 · AMA → LAS
departs 5:06 PM CT · arrives 5:19 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±13 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
AMA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AMA (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.