Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2769
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2769 · SAN → LAS
departs 3:21 PM PT · arrives 4:46 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±8 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
62%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.44 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.