Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2817
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2817 · BNA → MCO
departs 5:16 PM CT · arrives 8:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
56%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
33%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 1.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.73 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.