Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2850
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2850 · LAS → SEA
departs 4:41 PM PT · arrives 7:21 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
76%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
76%
Leave 15+ late
67%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
76%
Yes 76%
No 24%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
67%
Yes 67%
No 33%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
24%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.