Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2852
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 2852 · MCO → BUF
departs 8:41 PM ET · arrives 11:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 40%
Thu 11/5 43%
Fri 11/6 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±3 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
20%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.64 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.