Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2861
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2861 · LGB → LAS
departs 2:01 PM PT · arrives 3:12 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±8 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
LGB usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LGB (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.29 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.