Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2874
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2874 · SFO → LAS
departs 2:26 PM PT · arrives 4:04 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
66%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
66%
Leave 15+ late
66%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.