Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2883
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2883 · SMF → PHX
departs 2:17 PM PT · arrives 5:18 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.