Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2963
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2963 · RNO → LAS
departs 2:56 PM PT · arrives 4:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±13 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.04 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.