Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2966
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2966 · RNO → LAS
departs 4:06 PM PT · arrives 5:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±13 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
24%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,967 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.