Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2994
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 2994 · MDW → SMF
departs 9:31 PM CT · arrives 11:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 48%
Tue 11/3 33%
Wed 11/4 45%
Thu 11/5 44%
Fri 11/6 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
43%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
43%
Leave 15+ late
53%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,033 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.