Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3053
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 3053 · MKE → LAS
departs 7:51 PM CT · arrives 9:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 27%
Thu 11/5 39%
Fri 11/6 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±14 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
MKE usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at MKE that day
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.