Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3072
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3072 · LAS → RNO
departs 7:31 PM PT · arrives 8:58 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 93%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 46%
Thu 11/5 47%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed – in 24h
–
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
32%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at LAS that day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.13 in
RNO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.