Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3157
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3157 · OAK → BUR
departs 6:03 PM PT · arrives 7:28 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 28%
Thu 11/5 36%
Fri 11/6 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from OAK are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
BUR (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.