Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3165
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 3165 · RNO → BUR
departs 6:01 PM PT · arrives 7:31 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,633 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.09 in
BUR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.