Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3166
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3166 · OGG → KOA
departs 1:36 PM HT · arrives 2:31 PM HT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 20%
Wed 11/4 23%
Thu 11/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at KOA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to KOA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at KOA
↑
Other factors
↓
OGG usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip none
KOA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.