Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3170
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 3170 · OAK → LAS
departs 8:40 PM PT · arrives 10:22 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 28%
Wed 11/4 23%
Thu 11/5 46%
Fri 11/6 51%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±11 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.