Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3215
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3215 · OGG → HNL
departs 12:01 PM HT · arrives 12:57 PM HT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Sat 10/31 11%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 17%
Wed 11/4 16%
Thu 11/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.