Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3228
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 3228 · SAN → SFO
departs 9:26 PM PT · arrives 11:03 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±8 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.77 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.