Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3247
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3247 · LAS → RNO
departs 4:28 PM PT · arrives 5:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
69%
chance · ±5 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
69%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
69%
Yes 69%
No 31%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
RNO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,967 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.