Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3382
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3382 · SMF → SAN
departs 3:11 PM PT · arrives 4:52 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SAN that day
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.