Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3425
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3425 · STL → MSY
departs 4:16 PM CT · arrives 6:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
4pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.14 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.84 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.