Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3454 · LAX → MDW
departs 3:41 PM PT · arrives 9:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±3 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
0.3 in of rain forecast at LAX that day
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.26 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.