Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3456
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3456 · PHX → RNO
departs 4:16 PM MT · arrives 5:13 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31 41%
Sun 11/1
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±4 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
67%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
67%
Yes 67%
No 33%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
30%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 1.46 in
RNO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,833 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.