Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3463
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 3463 · SMF → EUG
departs 10:27 PM PT · arrives 11:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at EUG more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.1d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EUG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at EUG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EUG?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Arrivals into EUG at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EUG (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.