Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3471
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3471 · SJC → BUR
departs 2:17 PM PT · arrives 3:37 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↑
2pm departures from SJC are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
BUR (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.