Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3484
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3484 · PHX → SMF
departs 5:05 PM MT · arrives 6:11 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 36%
Thu 11/5 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±6 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
72%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
72%
Yes 72%
No 28%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 1.78 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.