Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3499
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 3499 · PHX → SMF
departs 9:52 PM MT · arrives 10:58 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±5 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
75%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 59% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
75%
Yes 75%
No 25%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 1.80 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.