Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3521
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3521 · PIT → MDW
departs 8:11 PM ET · arrives 8:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 25%
Thu 11/5 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.