Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3541
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 3541 · LAX → SFO
departs 6:56 PM PT · arrives 8:22 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±11 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 59% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 45% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
0.3 in of rain forecast at LAX that day
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.32 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.