Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3542
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3542 · MCO → SJU
departs 4:46 PM ET · arrives 8:45 PM AT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
10%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed – in 24h
–
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, 1.5 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.36 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.41 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.